Green consumption behavior prediction based on fan-shaped search mechanism fruit fly algorithm optimized neural network

Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics.     

玉米收储制度改革背景下旱作农业区农户杂粮种植意愿影响因素分析——基于内蒙古自治区、辽宁省411个农户的调查数据

[目的]利用内蒙古自治区乌兰察布丰镇市、凉城县、兴和县,辽宁省朝阳市朝阳县411个农户调查数据,分析玉米收储制度改革背景下北方旱作区农户杂粮种植影响因素。[方法]首先对户主个人特征、家庭禀赋两个一般影响因素进行分析,然后重点对自然和社会资源特征、市场环境、政策环境3个影响因素进行分析。[结果](1)由于户主年龄偏大且文化程度较低、户均从事农业生产的劳动力数量和拥有的耕地面积都较少,农户面对玉米市场价格下跌改种其他农作物的能力较弱;(2)尽管农户普遍认同杂粮适合当地自然条件,但是缺乏企业带动,订单种植杂粮的比例较低,农户种植杂粮存在较高的销售风险;(3)虽然农户普遍预期玉米市场价格持平和走低,但是多数农户对杂粮市场价格没有明确预期,杂粮收益存在较高的不确定性;(4)农户普遍不了解玉米收储制度改革的具体内容,且绝大部分农户没有获得杂粮生产支持,不利于引导农户种植杂粮。[结论]应从加强政策宣传、扶持杂粮加工龙头企业、扩大杂粮补贴范围等方面着手,引导北方旱作区农户种植杂粮,减少玉米收储制度改革对其收入的冲击。     

The restructuring of Italian agriculture and its impact upon capital–labour relations: Labour contracting and exploitation in the fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain of the Lazio Region,Central Italy

Labour contracting is anywhere on the rise globally, even in fully developed capitalist countries. Far from being an anomaly in the smooth everyday functioning of the economy, contractors are a crucial node in facilitating and ensuring global capital's control over local labour regimes. This article uses a global value chain perspective to investigate the re‐emergence of gangmasters and gang labour in the agricultural sector of Lazio, Central Italy. It analyses the fruit and vegetable supply chain formation and configuration in the Lazio Region with the aim of identifying the underlying processes leading to the creation of gangmasters by capital to have a cheap and disposable, especially migrant, labour force. It also intends to give a more nuanced understanding of labour contracting in this context.     

我国柑桔的国际竞争力分析

通过对市场占有率、显示性比较优势指数的分析,表明我国我国柑桔产品中除了宽皮柑桔外,其他柑桔产品在国际上几乎没有竞争力;我国的宽皮柑桔在1998年之前具有国际竞争力,但在1998年之后不具备国际竞争力;分析了我国柑桔产业缺乏国际竞争力的原因,提出了组建柑桔协会等中介组织、大力发展柑桔加工业等对策措施。     

论我国水果罐头出口现状、机遇及挑战

近年来,我国水果罐头产品出口增长趋势较好,出口总量和出口总额都有所提升,丰富的产品也扩展了其他国外市场.我国水果罐头业在拥有世界需求趋旺、政府出台出口退税政策等良好机遇的同时.也面临着供求不一致、发展方式粗放和国外保护主义盛行等严峻挑战.     

Consumer Behavior Toward Eco-Labeled Minimally Processed Fruit Product

The authors proposed an analysis of the determinants of purchase intentions and willingness to pay for minimally processed fruit. For this purpose, on-field research was conducted that involved 589 consumers. A questionnaire, gathered in Italy and based on a Likert scale, was administered to investigate intentions to purchase minimally processed fruit from environmentally sustainable farms, simulating a minimally processed product with an eco-label. Via structural equation modeling, the authors develop propositions representing a theoretical approach in the context of purchasing food products. By analyzing two different types of consciousness (health and green), the deduced managerial implications make it possible to assess that the green consciousness influences the attitude and affects the choices and behaviors of consumers. The potential adoption of an eco-label on this kind of food product could be seen as a useful marketing tool for new markets.     

Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Quality and Safety Attributes in Artisanal Fruit Juices in Kenya

This study used choice experiment survey data from a random sample of 374 respondents to analyze consumer preferences for quality and safety attributes of artisanal fruit juices in Kenya. Results show that consumers had a positive and significant preference for single fruit juices compared to fruit mixtures, private rather than public inspection of the juices, traceability of fruit origin, and vendor’s health. Additives such as colorants, flavors, and preservatives were not preferred. Consumers were willing to pay premiums of up to 200% for artisanal juices that contain single fruits, lack additives, and are inspected by private agencies. These insights should be incorporated in ensuring that artisanal fruit juice designs comply with food quality and safety requirements. Further, there is a need to license and regulate the artisanal juice preparation and handling and to provide training to the handlers on safety and quality requirements.     

社区居民对都市近郊乡村旅游影响的感知与态度的实证研究——以成都花香果居景区为例

近年来,对乡村旅游的研究日益升温,但鲜有学者从居民感知的角度对都市近郊乡村旅游影响进行研究。文章以成都近郊的乡村旅游地花香果居景区为例进行实证研究,通过发放问卷、入户调查等方式将居民对旅游的经济、环境、社会文化及总体影响等4个方面的感知进行均值分析,发现在上述4个方面的正面感知均强于负面感知;通过相关性分析,了解不同社会人口特征与旅游影响感知的相关性。研究发现,花香果居景区居民对旅游积极影响感知强于负面影响,社区归属感越强的居民对旅游发展呈越积极的态度,而学历越高的居民对旅游负面影响感知更为敏感。在研究结论的基础上并提出花香果居乡村旅游发展的若干建议。     

Was there policy “reform”? Evolution of EU domestic support for processed fruits and vegetables

Policy “reform” in agricultural markets is often associated with less government regulation and expenditures, or a shift towards more efficient interventions. The European Union (EU) adopted major policy changes for processed fruits and vegetables in 2001 and again in 2008, and we employ a simulation model to examine the effects of the three policy regimes in place before and after each of the changes. Our analysis incorporates the heterogeneity of processing firms in the EU and considers how they responded to the different policy regimes. Simulation results indicate that the EU subsidies increased EU tomato production by 3.8% for the regime that began in 2008 and 9.1% for the regime that began in 2001 compared to no subsidies. The policy regime that was in place from 2001 through 2007 led to the greatest distortions in global processing tomato markets, in part because it directed more of the benefits to EU growers and less to EU processors and consumers. Thus changes in 2001 “reformed” policy by redistributing gains within the EU, while changes in 2008 “reformed” policy by reducing distortions in global markets.     

When nutritional guidelines and life collide: family fruit and vegetable socialisation practices in low socioeconomic communities

Abstract

Parents play a critical role in promoting fruit and vegetable consumption, for eating patterns established early in life tend to persist into adulthood. Despite this, the factors that facilitate or inhibit parents’ capacity to socialise fruit and vegetable consumption into their children’s daily diets remain poorly defined. Thirty-eight semi-structured interviews with residents, allied healthcare professionals, community leaders, community programme leaders and a local government leader living or working in two low socioeconomic suburbs were consequently conducted to ascertain factors exogenous and endogenous to the family unit that shaped parental food socialisation practices. Budgetary and time constraints emerged as exogenous factors that constrained fruit and vegetable socialisation. Constraining effects were also found for a range of endogenous factors, including commensal experiences, children’s food fussiness and the feeding styles employed by parents. As such, while many caregivers may wish to socialise fruit and vegetable consumption into their children’s daily diets, their capacity to do so is often inhibited by factors beyond their volitional control. Failure to take heed of these factors could therefore result in the development of social marketing campaigns that are ineffective at best or give rise to unintentionally harmful outcomes at worst.